Costs

If one wants to assess the future of nuclear energy, it is, of course, useful to compare its cost to those of other means of electricity production. We report, in Table 2.10, some cost estimates, given in American cents/ KWh.

$\begin{array}[c]{lll} & \cite{Futuribles} & \cite{IEPE}\\ Fossil fuels: tradi... ...lar:\ thermal & 12 & \\ \mbox{Solar:\ photovolta\uml {\i}c} & 50 & \end{array}$

Table 2.10

Cost estimates for different energy production technologies

The table shows that, among the renewable energies, only the wind energy has reached competitiveness with fossil fuels and nuclear power. However this close competitiveness is only attained without autonomous energy storage devices, the electricity produced by the wind-mills being used as input to the general network. Bio-mass may also be competitive in specific sites if no long distance transportation of the bio-fuel is required. In the future thermal solar energy might reach competitiveness in well sunlighted sites, and if long term energy storage is not needed. To be complete one should stress that wind energy, small bio-mass facilities, solar devices might be very suitable in remote sites where no electricity network exists. Also, energy saving efforts should have a high priority: it is largely preferable to invest a given amount of money to save, say 7 TWh yearly, than to build an additional 1 GWe facility.

The table shows that the only competitive and massive energy producing method which could be an alternative to fossil fuels facilities is nuclear power. However the natural market trends favor combined gaz fueled facilities which reach very high efficiencies and involve investment costs only one third of those required for a nuclear facility, even in favorable institutional context like in France. A ''rebirth'' of nuclear power is only probable, in a not too distant future, if a strong policy to reduce greenhouse gas release is put into effect worlwide. This ``rebirth'' will probably be possible only if, in the public opinion, the nuclear waste problem is solved satisfactorily, and if the possibility of a ``Tchernobyl'' type accident is demonstrated to be impossible any more. Here again hybrid reactors may be helpful.